$达美航空(DAL)$

大家都在说航空公司以及DAL的事情，也说一下我的看法：

1. 关于 Berkshire （为什么说是Berkshire 不是Warren呢，Berkshire本身的投资更需要从整个Portfolio的角度来考虑，而Berkshire本身二级市场投资的比例和本身的Operation以及Insurance业务相比较比例相当之小了，所以我想对Warren来说做为一个独立投资者和从Berkshire的角度情况是不一样的)

我们先看看Berkshire 对 DAL的操作:

a. 从报告来看Berkshire 对 DAL的share holding, 因为公司自己回购，从 03/05/2019 被动到达 10%。

b. 成为10 percent owner以后，03/08/2019第一次增持，增持的价格大约在 $ 49

c. 02/27/2020 第二次次增持，而这次增持的价格大约在 $ 47 到 $ 45 之间。

d. 比较妖的是到 04/01/2020 04/02/2020 先减持，回过头来看，根据Munger的采访后续可能在 2020年4月15日之前完成清仓 (wsj对munger的采访发布与 April 17, 2020)

成为10% owner以后继续增持，对Berkshire这样的机构投资者来说，应该是对DAL的价值极度的肯定

比较有趣的是恰恰在 Berkshire 减持完成以后，在April 20, 2020, Delta Air Lines 达成PSP救助协议, SEC filling：

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从目前了解到的救助方案的deal来说（大约 4B PSP, 以及6b 的5年至10年的loan，以及可能的 ~4%的股权稀释），如果Berkshire 来做为资助方是不可能提供这样的方案的（如果berkshire来救助，典型风格估计是年化收益8%的preferred stock, 再加上 warrants，股权稀释可能要比这个高的多，参照 $美国银行(BAC)$ 和 $西方石油(OXY)$ ），而这种救助对于一个公众公司，特别是经营不错的公司又牵涉到就业和国家经济，平衡各方接受度应该比较高的，但是如果 Berkshire 只是把 ownership减到恰好10%以内怕是也是难以说服公众。

再结合WSJ发布与April 17, 2020对Munger的采访 (The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook):

Well, I would say basically we’re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that’s ever happened comes,” Mr. Munger told me. “We just want to get through the typhoon, and we’d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity. We’re not playing, ‘Oh goody, goody, everything’s going to hell, let’s plunge 100% of the reserves [into buying businesses].’”

He added, “Warren wants to keep Berkshire safe for people who have 90% of their net worth invested in it. We’re always going to be on the safe side. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t do something pretty aggressive or seize some opportunity. But basically we will be fairly conservative. And we’ll emerge on the other side very strong.”

以及在5/2/2020，Berkshire Annual Meeting上Warren的发言

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Warren Buffett: (01:43:01)
I mean, believe me, no joy being a CEO of an airline, but the companies we bought are well managed. They did a lot of things right. It’s a very, very, very difficult business because you’re dealing with millions of people every day, and if something goes wrong for 1% of them, they are very unhappy. So I don’t envy anybody the job of being CEO of an airline, but I particularly don’t enjoy being it in a period like this, where essentially nobody… People have been told basically not to fly. I’ve been told not to fly for a while. I’m looking forward to flying them. May not fly commercial, but that’s another question. The airline business, and I may be wrong and I hope I’m wrong, but I think it changed in a very major way, and it’s obviously changed in the fact that there’re four companies are each going to borrow perhaps an average of at least 10 or 12 billion each.

...

Warren Buffett: (02:10:44)
Well, when we change our mind, we don’t take half measures or anything of the sort. So I was amazed at how frankly… Now, we were selling them at far lower prices than we paid. But I was amazed at the volume there. Airlines always trade in large volume relatively, but we have sold the entire positions.

在这个typhoon面前, 可以看到Berkshire 做为大股东救助 airline赔率以及回报并不合适(参照目前的救助方案)，这样情况下，warren 更愿意保证 Berkshire 充足的流动性，同时Berkshire 又具有在二级市场上出售 Airline股票的条件 ( trade in large volume），以Berkshire的体量(7604亿美元的资产)如果只是部分抛售或是只留小部分像(比如5%，如果恰好减到10%以下怕是难以说服救公众)DAL这样相对绩优的公司可能意义也不大。

2. 虽然Berkshire亏损卖掉航司，但是对berkshire来说，这部分资金, 在目前的经济条件下在Berkshire conglemerate内部支持一些需要现金的子机构，或是看未来的一些投资机会实际的回报率未必会低。从这个角度来说我想 Berkshire 的决定对Berkshire是合理的。

3.有人可能会觉得航司会破产所以Berkshire才出清航司的，也许对多数航空公司来说如果没有救助计划可能破产不可避免，作为航司里最强中的一个，在大规模破产的情况下如果有留下来的，DAL显然会是其中一个。更何况有目前大约10B的救助计划，即使加上warrants, 这部份的实际代价也是可以接受的。

4. Berkshire以前看多的理由都是一直存在的，如果认为清空就是不看好未来的话，我想Berkshire 看多看空的因素各占50%了。回到投资的本质，去掉外界的噪音。一个优秀的公司，以目前的价格 3倍左右的静态PE，作为一个价值投资者是去是留，问问自己，我相信每个人都会有自己的答案。投资，本来就是一件很孤独的事情。